Clinton’s Win Scenario
As a follow-up on my post from the other day, I looked a bit more closely at some state polling, and filled out the CNN delegate counter based on what I could find. Where I couldn’t find any polling, I kept it more or less tied, with a slight advantage to the winner in the surrounding states. I then gave Clinton the required superdelegates to reach 2,024 Here’s how it turned out:
As you can see, that’s another 244 superdelegates Clinton will need to reach the nomination by June 7th. Keep in mind that it’s roughly the same number as Obama will need to reach the nomination by May 6th. The even more interesting thing here, to me, is that if Barack Obama can bring over 100 more delegates, he’ll have made it impossible for Clinton to ever reach 2,024 (assuming these results in the primaries).
I also should point out that I think the primary results on that map are extremely pessimistic from Obama’s perspective. A 30 delegate loss in PA would be far more surprising than the Ohio loss, and I expect it to be more in the 10-20 range. I’m also doubtful of the Oregon results, as the poll I used is from January, and still has Edwards and Kucinich in the running. From what I hear, Oregon has a strong level of support for Obama right now.
For comparison, here’s Obama’s win by superdelegates in the same situation:
With the Richardson endorsement, I expect we’ll see a flood of superdelegates coming out for Obama between now and 4/22.
